Defeating Iran is a part of imperialism’s offensive aiming to cut off China’s energy supplies, after following the same objective by attacking and taking control of Venezuela. Iran, like Russia, has part of its coastline on the Caspian Sea (with its gigantic energy reserve). 80% of Iranian oil is exported to China. In turn, in 2025, Iran accounted for about 13% of all oil imported by China by sea.
The techno-billionaire and paedophile regimes of the US and Israel believed in the tactic of terror and beheading of Iran. Iran, for almost half a century under siege and sanctions, which have spanned generations, has been preparing for this war for years, believing that it will be decisive for the existence of the Islamic Republic, they believe that it will be the largest and longest they have ever faced. As a sign of the times of imperialist decay, the consequences and risks of this war do not fall solely on the oppressed country. The U.S. could be defeated, humiliated, and be forced to lose its influence in West Asia by dismantling its military bases. Israel, which had the myth of its invulnerability dispelled in the 12-day war, may be more isolated and vulnerable than ever. The pro-imperialist monarchies, with their artificial puppet states, will have their days numbered.
The murder of hundreds of people, students, political and religious leaders of the country, among them the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, similar to the Catholic Pope for Shiite Muslims, has several consequences:
1. Strengthened Iranian national cohesion, even among those who had differences with the government, against foreign attack, which means that the coup plans of regime change can result in a strong regime instead. There has also been an increase in international solidarity with the Persian nation, in addition to massive demonstrations in Iran’s own cities, in the midst of US and Israeli missile attacks; there have been furious protests in Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, attacks on US embassies and even UN buildings.
2. This compelled the Revolutionary Guards to carry out the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, blocking 20% of the world’s oil traffic (though not from allied vessels such as China), causing the price to skyrocket by 30% in the first days of the war, which could reach 100 dollars a barrel with the continuation of the war. This could unleash inflation and a global economic crisis. In the dispute over the Strait, several vessels have been reporting a cybernetic anomaly in their navigation systems hitherto unknown, with GPS signals showing incorrect positions and speeds.
3. It enables the government to repress more forcefully the internal mercenaries infiltrated, in the pay of imperialism and Zionism, a procedure that had already been done against the attempted violent revolution of December and January, eliminating the possibilities of regime change, even with the killing of the most prominent leadership figures.
4. It reopens the debate on the revision of the 2003 fatwa, issued by Khamenei, a theological doctrine that prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons, a deterrent device that has ensured relative tranquility for North Korea. More than once, scientists and advisers have expressed the view that the doctrine could change if Iran’s existence is threatened, and this war points to that.
5. The character of the Iranian military reaction is completely different from the actions previously warned and agreed with the enemy, as in the 12-day war.
6. Iran has made a leap in quality in relation to the weapons used in the 12-day war. It used its deadliest weapon against anti-missile systems at U.S. bases. For the first time the Fattah-2 hypersonic cruise missiles. The missile has a range of approximately 1,500 km. One of the advantages of this weapon is that they do not need to gain altitude like ballistic missiles, HGVs (Hypersonic Glide Vehicles) fly much lower and can change direction frequently towards the target, making it difficult for enemy long-range defence radars to detect.
7. Iran is bleeding heavily. The biggest casualty is in its political and religious cadres, but it has demonstrated a capacity to replace leading cadres and an automatic or pre-planned reaction that is very surprising and superior to that of imperialism since the 12-day war.
8. Once again, the imperialist anti-aircraft defences were overwhelmed. The UAE had acquired 2 billion dollars’ worth of anti-aircraft weapons, missile interceptors, which have already been depleted, leaving the way clear for more modern and powerful weapons from Iran. Much of the air defences, from US interceptors, have already been spent in Ukraine. And as in all industry, the arms industry also “suffers”, although to a lesser extent, from deindustrialization. Thus, daily bombs rain down on Israeli cities, with Iranian missiles and drones already devastating even the headquarters of Mossad and Benjamin Netanyahu’s own cabinet. Now the defence capabilities of U.S. bases throughout West Asia, all the way to Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea, are also being destroyed.
9. Having had its bases compromised by the expansion of the reach of Iranian counterattacks to the Mediterranean, the US demanded that Spain make its territory available, a request rejected by the Spanish socialist government. Then Trump declared the rupture of all trade relations with Spain. Simultaneously, the German Social Democratic and British Labour governments have made their bases, but not yet their military forces, available to Nazi-Zionism to increase its military campaign against Iran. Confirming the lessons of our time, Macron, in France, announced new investments in nuclear weapons and the deployment of a French aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean.
10. The largest U.S. radar in the Persian Gulf, “capable of monitoring all of West Asia”, used for early warning with a range of 5,000 kilometers and a price of 1.1 billion dollars, was destroyed. Three U.S. F-15 fighter jets were shot down in Kuwait.
11. There is a gigantic disproportion in the costs and destructive yield of armaments. Iran produces drones at a price of $20 – 50,000, which need to be shot down by 3 interceptor missiles that cost from $50,000 (cost of the Iron Dome ones that have proven ineffective and are being replaced) to $4 million (for the Patriot/US system). For its part, Iran is not counting on the weapons it will produce. It has already produced thousands of drones in the Shahed category, which prove to be among the best in the world, which were a success in Ukraine against NATO. Iran has already built and then and dismantled the factories, so that they cannot be destroyed, as well as moving the radioactive material from their atomic plants, which have been targets of the bombings. Its weaponry already produced is sink cost, or, in Marxist terms, fixed capital, which cannot be recovered and, therefore, when used in the defence of the country, promotes a new cycle of capital accumulation for Iran.
11. Reactivation of the Axis of Resistance. It has been more than a year since the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) of Iraq and Hezbollah have responded to Zionist aggressions. Now they are back in action.
For the third phase of the imperialist response, we must add that
1. Israel’s current focus is to try in a cowardly manner to neutralise the Axis of Resistance in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. The Zionist entity announces the invasion of Lebanon by land, with the support of the Lebanese government, try to exterminate Hezbollah.
2. The possibility of a nuclear attack by the US or Israel against Iran cannot be ruled out, as a desperate reaction of Nazi-Zionist imperialism.
It is very much in the interest of the world working class that the workers’ movement comes to Iran’s defence. Most of the US population is opposed to this aggression – we need political strikes against it, in the US and elsewhere. Socialists must militantly oppose all such imperialist aggression and also welcome such assistance as adversaries of the imperialist West, such as the Chinese deformed workers state, Russia, etc, are able to give to Iran. Iran is being supported indirectly by China and Russia, but this support is insufficient against the imperialist power, which has as a strategy the strangulation of Chinese supply chains, and then attacks China. If it loses Iran, then Venezuela (and then Brazil?), China will lose 1/5 of its oil supply. Iran’s victory is vital, not only for Iran itself, but for China and the BRICS. The diplomatic, economic and military aid that these states have given to Iran is important, but much more is necessary – much more than the ‘market socialist’ bureaucratic caste that leads the Chinese deformed workers state, or Russia with its statified variant of capitalism – still at odds with imperialism because it is deformed by remnants of the October revolution that counterrevolution proved unable to eliminate – are remotely capable of. We need the rebirth of a genuine communist movement, rooted in the proletariat in all countries, to both fight for, and hopefully to lead, a massive anti-imperialist united front. A unified fist to defeat this imperialist aggression and lay the basis for a renewed offensive for world socialism against the declining US empire, the Zionist regime, and their imperialist allies and lackeys.
